Structural Time-Series Models for Forecasting Yield of Promising Varieties of Rice Crop in Chhattisgarh

Roshan Kumar Bharadwaj; S.S. Gautam; R.R. Saxena

doi:https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V26P513

International Journal of Mathematics Trends and Technology

Research Article | Open Access | Download PDF

Volume 26 | Number 2 | Year 2015 | Article Id. IJMTT-V26P513 | DOI : https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V26P513

Structural Time-Series Models for Forecasting Yield of Promising Varieties of Rice Crop in Chhattisgarh

Roshan Kumar Bharadwaj, S.S. Gautam, R.R. Saxena

Abstract

A univariate structural time series model based on the traditional decomposition into trend, seasonal and irregular components is measured. Purpose of present paper is to discuss Structural Time Series Model (STM) methodology utilized for modelling time-series data in the present of trend, seasonal and cyclic fluctuations. Structural time series model are formulated in such a way that their components are stochastic, i.e. they are regard as being driven by random disturbances. The study mainly confined to secondary collected for a period 2009-10 to 2014-15 data of promising varieties of Rice yield. As these techniques, it may be mentioned that models are fitted to the data and coefficient parameter value obtained on the basis of the model are compared with the actual observation for assessing the accuracy of the fitted model. To validate the forecasting ability of the fitted models, for the three years with upper and lower limit. The maximum rice yield obtained Swarna variety with forecast for the year 2017-18 obtained 50.31 q/ha with upper and lower limit 53.84 and 46.78 q/ha. The minimum yield obtained PKV-HMT (33.79 q/ha) with upper and lower limit 45.63 and 21.96 q/ha respectively.

Keywords

Structural time series model, AIC, BIC, Goodness of fit

References

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4. Pandey, M.P., Varulkar, S.B. and Sarawagi, A.K. Status paper on rice in Chhattisgarh, pp 1-32, 2013.
5. S. Ravichandran and Prajneshu. “Dynamical modelling and forecasting of India’s food grain production”. Proc. Nat. Acad. Sci. India,Vol. 72, B(I), 2002.

Citation :

Roshan Kumar Bharadwaj, S.S. Gautam, R.R. Saxena, "Structural Time-Series Models for Forecasting Yield of Promising Varieties of Rice Crop in Chhattisgarh," International Journal of Mathematics Trends and Technology (IJMTT), vol. 26, no. 2, pp. 58-62, 2015. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V26P513