An Estimation of the Internet Diffusion Process in Albania using Logistic & Bi-Logistic Model

Dr. Valentina Shehu

doi:https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V27P507

International Journal of Mathematics Trends and Technology

Research Article | Open Access | Download PDF

Volume 27 | Number 1 | Year 2015 | Article Id. IJMTT-V27P507 | DOI : https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V27P507

An Estimation of the Internet Diffusion Process in Albania using Logistic & Bi-Logistic Model

Dr. Valentina Shehu

Citation :

Dr. Valentina Shehu, "An Estimation of the Internet Diffusion Process in Albania using Logistic & Bi-Logistic Model," International Journal of Mathematics Trends and Technology (IJMTT), vol. 27, no. 1, pp. 33-37, 2015. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V27P507

Abstract

Development of information technology has decreased the costs of processing information, and the internet has speeded up communication. Internet is a crucial technological innovation which has exceptional economic impact. Factual information confirms that developed countries possess higher concentrations of internet compared with undeveloped countries. For instance, in Albania for a long time, internet penetration levels have remained too low from 1995 to 2004, and have an impulse of increase in 2007. This study has the goal to analyze the diffusion process of Internet in Albania. The principal objective of this research is to model and forecast the values of Internet diffusion using the data of percentage of Internet users of World Bank database. In the first part, it was established that the diffusion of the Internet follows the S-shaped growth curve using Loglet Lab. The parameters of model give information on the Internet diffusion speed and the maximum potential percentage of Internet users. Growth projection informs providers of Internet products and service about the potential consumer base.

Keywords

Internet diffusion, logistic model, Loglet Lab.

References

[1] Andres, L., Cuberes, D., Diouf, M., & Serebrinsky, T. 2010: The diffusion of the Internet: A cross-country analysis. Telecommunications Policy, 34 (5-6), 323-340.
[2] Lucas, H.C. & Sylla, R. (2003): The Global Impact of the Internet: Widening the Economic Gap Between Wealthy and Poor Nations? Prometheus, 21(1), 3-22.
[3] World Bank. (2015). World Develolpment Indicators. Retrieved August 5, 2015, from http://databank.worldbank.org/data/reports.aspx?source=world -development-indicators
[4] AKEP (2015): Annual Report 2014 Retrived September 15, 2015, from http://www.akep.al/images/stories/AKEP/publikime/raporte/R APORTI%20VJETOR2014-170415.pdf
[5] Rogers, E.M. (2003) Diffusion of Inovations (5th ed.) New York Free Press.
[6] Meyer P., Young J. & Ausubel J. A Primer on Logistic growth and Substitution: The Mathematics of the Loglet Lab Software. Technological Forecasting & Social Change. Vol. 61(3), pp. 247-271 (1999)
[7] Fisher J.C. & Pry R. A simple substitution model for Technological Change. Technological Forecasting & Social Change Vol. 3, pp. 75-78.