A Comparison of Models for Projecting
Survivors Past Beyond the Last Age for Assam

P. Saikia; M. Borah

doi:https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V39P514

International Journal of Mathematics Trends and Technology

Research Article | Open Access | Download PDF

Volume 39 | Number 2 | Year 2016 | Article Id. IJMTT-V39P514 | DOI : https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V39P514

A Comparison of Models for Projecting Survivors Past Beyond the Last Age for Assam

P. Saikia, M. Borah

Citation :

P. Saikia, M. Borah, "A Comparison of Models for Projecting Survivors Past Beyond the Last Age for Assam," International Journal of Mathematics Trends and Technology (IJMTT), vol. 39, no. 2, pp. 99-109, 2016. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V39P514

Abstract

In this paper we have been examined Gompertz and Makeham models for extrapolating survivors in a life table past beyond the last age. The main focus of this paper is to select the best fit mortality model to extrapolate survivors for Assam for total, rural and urban population for both the genders. Using the abridged life tables of Assam for the period 2009-13 as input, the parameters of the mortality models have been estimated. The parameters of these two models are estimated using two methods of estimation. Each method of estimation for both the models performed well. The best fit model has been selected on the premise RMSE and value. In light of our outcomes, it might be presumed that Makeham model is the reasonable model for projecting the survivors for Assam for total, rural and urban population for both male and female. It is observed from our result that the projected number of survivors is more for urban area than rural. Likewise, it is seen that, the quantity of survivors is more for female when contrasted with male. Additionally, it can be concluded that a woman in Assam has higher life expectancy at ages 90, 95, 100 than her male counterpart within the State in rural and total areas but a woman in Assam from urban area has lower life expectancy than her male at the above age group.

Keywords

Gompertz model, Makeham model, Parameter Estimation, Abridged life table, life expectancy.

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