Comparison among Additive Time Series, Multiplicative Time Series, Holt Winter Additive and Holt Winter Multiplicative Methods in Forecasting the Number of Foreign Tourists Visit to Riau Islands Province

Ristifani Ulfatmi; Khairunnissa; Muhamad Hariadi; Rado Yendra; Arisman Adnan

doi:https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V68I12P501

International Journal of Mathematics Trends and Technology

Research Article | Open Access | Download PDF

Volume 68 | Issue 12 | Year 2022 | Article Id. IJMTT-V68I12P501 | DOI : https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V68I12P501

Comparison among Additive Time Series, Multiplicative Time Series, Holt Winter Additive and Holt Winter Multiplicative Methods in Forecasting the Number of Foreign Tourists Visit to Riau Islands Province

Ristifani Ulfatmi, Khairunnissa, Muhamad Hariadi, Rado Yendra, Arisman Adnan

Received	Revised	Accepted	Published
10 Oct 2022	15 Nov 2022	27 Nov 2022	10 Dec 2022

Abstract

Tourism plays a pivotal role in the Indonesian economy. As a foreign exchange reserves, the performance of tourism sector is determined by our ability to bring in as many foreign tourists as possible to Indonesia. Riau Islands is the foreign tourism gate which is strategically located as a favorable foreign tourist destination. This journal aims to determine proper forecasting methods for the existing data patterns and to provide more accurate forecasting results. The methods used include Time Series Additive and Multiplicative as well as Holt Winter Additive and Multiplicative. From these four methods, the forecasting is calculated using the Holt Winter Multiplicative method as it has the smallest MAE (Mean Absolute Error) value compared to the other three methods.

Keywords

Foreign Tourists, Additive Time Series, Multiplicative Time Series, Holt Winter Additive, Holt Winter Multiplicative, forecasting.

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Citation :

Ristifani Ulfatmi, Khairunnissa, Muhamad Hariadi, Rado Yendra, Arisman Adnan, "Comparison among Additive Time Series, Multiplicative Time Series, Holt Winter Additive and Holt Winter Multiplicative Methods in Forecasting the Number of Foreign Tourists Visit to Riau Islands Province," International Journal of Mathematics Trends and Technology (IJMTT), vol. 68, no. 12, pp. 1-6, 2022. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V68I12P501