Applied Some Probability Density Function for Frequency Analysis of New Cases Covid-19 in Indonesia

Vinny Anugrah; Rado Yendra; Muhammad Marizal; Rahmadeni

doi:https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V68I12P511

International Journal of Mathematics Trends and Technology

Research Article | Open Access | Download PDF

Volume 68 | Issue 12 | Year 2022 | Article Id. IJMTT-V68I12P511 | DOI : https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V68I12P511

Applied Some Probability Density Function for Frequency Analysis of New Cases Covid-19 in Indonesia

Vinny Anugrah, Rado Yendra, Muhammad Marizal, Rahmadeni

Received	Revised	Accepted	Published
29 Oct 2022	04 Dec 2022	16 Dec 2022	31 Dec 2022

Citation :

Vinny Anugrah, Rado Yendra, Muhammad Marizal, Rahmadeni, "Applied Some Probability Density Function for Frequency Analysis of New Cases Covid-19 in Indonesia," International Journal of Mathematics Trends and Technology (IJMTT), vol. 68, no. 12, pp. 100-105, 2022. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V68I12P511

Abstract

Changes in the number of positive COVID-19 patients in Indonesia greatly affect the number of beds in hospitals. Indonesia as a country that has a large population requires an accurate frequency analysis to make policies in dealing with changes in the number of patients. This study focuses on analyzing the frequency of COVID-19 patients by using probability modeling. Probability modeling will be carried out using four probability density functions (pdf) namely Gamma, Amarendra, Rani, and Sujatha 2 Parameters will be used in this study. The estimated parameter from the pdf used in this study will be obtained using the maximum likelihood technique. The distribution will be chosen using a few Good of Fit Test techniques, including graphical (pdf plot and CDF plot) and numerical (Akaike Information Criterion (AIC) and Bayesian Information Criterion (BIC) methods. The majority of the time, graphical approaches get identical results, however their AIC and BIC results differ. The distribution with the lowest AIC and BIC values is chosen as the best appropriate outcome. The Sujatha two parameter distribution has generally been deemed to be the best model.

Keywords

Covid 19, Amarendra distribution, Gamma distribution, Rani distribution, Sujatha distribution.

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