The Analysist Impacts of Covid-19 on Zakat
Revenue in Indonesia using an Exponential
Smoothing Model

Ria Indah Sari; Tomi Z.; Era Napra Tilopa Sihombing; Mahiroh; Rado Yendra; Arisman Adnan

doi:https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V68I5P503

International Journal of Mathematics Trends and Technology

Research Article | Open Access | Download PDF

Volume 68 | Issue 5 | Year 2022 | Article Id. IJMTT-V68I5P503 | DOI : https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V68I5P503

The Analysist Impacts of Covid-19 on Zakat Revenue in Indonesia using an Exponential Smoothing Model

Ria Indah Sari, Tomi Z., Era Napra Tilopa Sihombing, Mahiroh, Rado Yendra, Arisman Adnan

Received	Revised	Accepted	Published
12 Mar 2022	05 May 2022	19 May 2022	27 May 2022

Citation :

Ria Indah Sari, Tomi Z., Era Napra Tilopa Sihombing, Mahiroh, Rado Yendra, Arisman Adnan, "The Analysist Impacts of Covid-19 on Zakat Revenue in Indonesia using an Exponential Smoothing Model," International Journal of Mathematics Trends and Technology (IJMTT), vol. 68, no. 5, pp. 11-16, 2022. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V68I5P503

Abstract

The Covid-19 pandemic initially occurred in Indonesia in early March 2020 and has destroyed almost all development sectors, including economic sectors. The Central Statistics Agency reports that Indonesia's economic growth figure for the first quarter of 2020 was minus 2.41% or lower than that of the fourth quarter of 2019 (before the pandemic). However, this study aims to prove that zakat revenue in Indonesia is not affected by the Covid-19 pandemic because it has increased. This analysis employed an exponential smoothing model. Holt's exponential smoothing (HES) model could reveal more actual data with smaller mean square errors (MSE) and mean absolute percentage errors (MAPE) than the simple exponential smoothing (SES) model. This study reveals that the zakat revenue has elevated during the Covid-19 pandemic.

Keywords

Zakat, Holt's winter, Exponential smoothing, Forecasting, Trend, Covid-19.

References

[1] W. H. Organization, Transmission of SARS-CoV-2: implications for infection prevention precautions: scientific brief, 09 July 2020, World Health Organization, (2020). [Online]. Available: (No. WHO/2019-nCoV/Sci_Brief/Transmission_modes/2020.3).
[2] B. P. Statistik, Official Statistics News : Indonesia’s Economic Growth Quarter I-2020, www.riau.bps.go.id, (2020). [Online]. Available: https://www.bps.go.id/pressrelease/2020/05/05/1736/ekonomi-indonesia-triwulan-i-2020-tumbuh-2-97-persen.html.
[3] I. Dictionary, Covid-19 Pandemic : Its Effect on Retail Business, Int. J. Econ. Bus. Account. Res., 6(1) (2022) 515–520, 2022.
[4] B. P. Statistik, Official Statistics News : State of Indonesia’s Employment August , www.riau.bps.go.id, (2020). [Online]. Available: https://www.bps.go.id/pressrelease/2020/11/05/1673/-revisi-per-18-02-2021--agustus-2020--tingkat-pengangguran-terbuka--tpt-- sebesar-7-07-persen.html.
[5] B. P. Statistik, Official News Statistics : Poverty Profile in Indonesia September, www.riau.bps.go.id, (2020). [Online]. Available: https://www.bps.go.id/pressrelease/2021/02/15/1851/persentase-penduduk-miskin-september-2020-naik-menjadi-10-19-persen.html.
[6] N. A. S. Irhamdi, Muhamad; Yusuf, Dimas Ramadhani Adi; Aisyah, Refleksi Kepemimpinan Uma bin Abdul Aziz dalam Mensejaterakan Rakyat Melalui Perantara Zakat, Mudabbir, 1(2) (2020) 82–98.
[7] Choiriyah, E., Kafi, A., Hikmah, I., & Indrawan, I., Zakat And Poverty Alleviation In Indonesia: A Panel Analysis At Provincial Level, Journal of Islamic Monetary Economics and Finance, 6(4) (2020) 811 - 832. https://doi.org/10.21098/jimf.v6i4.1122.
[8] Nadzri, F.A.; A. Rahman, R. & Omar, N., Zakat and Poverty Alleviation: Roles of Zakat Institutions in Malaysia, International Journal of Arts and Commerce, 1(7) (2012) 61 –72.
[9] Rahmatina Awaliah Kasri , Giving behaviors in Indonesia: motives and marketing implications for Islamic charities, Journal of Islamic Marketing, 4(3) (2013) 306 – 324, 2013.
[10] Baznas, Outlook Zakat Indonesia www.puskasbaznas.com, (2022). [Online]. Available: https://www.puskasbaznas.com/publications/outlook/indonesia-zakat-outlook-2022.
[11] S. Makridakis, S. Wheelwright, and R. Hyndman, Forecasting: Methods and Applications Third Edition. John Wiley & Sons Inc., (1997).
[12] A. Husti, Ilyas; Akbarizan; Marizal, Muhammad; Yendra, Rado; Fudholi, Forecasting Model Holt’s for the Zakat Collection in Indonesia, Malaysia and Brunai, Soc. Sci., 12(12) (2017)2370–2374.
[13] Akbarizan et al., Utilization of Holt’s forecasting model for zakat collection in Indonesia, Am. J. Appl. Sci., 13(12) (2016) 1342–1346.doi: 10.3844/ajassp.2016.1342.1346.
[14] O. C. Asogwa, C. . Eze, and C. R. O. nkwo, Modeling the Cases of Road Traffic Crashes: A Case of Exponential Smoothing Approach, Int. J. Math. Trends Technol.,65(1) (2019) 46–52.doi: 10.14445/22315373/ijmtt-v65i1p508
[15] N. Namdar and R. Hassanzadeh, Developing A Mathematical Equation to Predict Khums and Zakat in the Iranian Economy, Int. J. Zakat, 6(2) (2021) 43-62.
[16] S. Al Parisi, Overview of Forecasting Zakat Collection in Indonesia Using Multiplicative Decomposition, Int. J. Zakat, 2(1) (2017) 45– 59, 2017.
[17] F. Bin, M. Belgacem, H. R. H. Prince, and T. Bin, Modeling the stochastic dynamics of Zakaat, Math. Eng. Sci. Aerosp., 1(1) (2010) 91– 103