Abstract

In this paper, three widely recognized mathematical models - the bureaucratic model, the strategic model, and the combined bureaucratic and strategic model are used to analyze how defense spending is implemented. Each model offers a different justification for why nations spend on defense. The predicted accuracy of the models is evaluated using data on Russia's and Ukraine's defense spending from 1994 to 2021. Additionally, the models are evaluated across six pairs of competitive countries to determine their general applicability. The results show that the models' accuracy in predicting defence spending trends varied. This comparative study contributes insights into the variables influencing defense spending and how they affect geopolitical dynamics. The study highlights the need for strong models to better understand and predict defence spending worldwide.

Keywords

Mathematical Modelling, Defence Spending, Richardson’s Arms Race Model, Bureaucratic Model, Strategic Model.

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