SARIMA Modeling and Forecasting of Seasonal Rainfall Patterns in India

Subbaiah Naidu K.CH.V

doi:https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V38P504

International Journal of Mathematics Trends and Technology

Research Article | Open Access | Download PDF

Volume 38 | Number 1 | Year 2016 | Article Id. IJMTT-V38P504 | DOI : https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V38P504

SARIMA Modeling and Forecasting of Seasonal Rainfall Patterns in India

Subbaiah Naidu K.CH.V

Citation :

Subbaiah Naidu K.CH.V, "SARIMA Modeling and Forecasting of Seasonal Rainfall Patterns in India," International Journal of Mathematics Trends and Technology (IJMTT), vol. 38, no. 1, pp. 15-22, 2016. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V38P504

Abstract

Rainfall is of critical importance for many people particularly those whose livelihoods are dependent on rain fed agriculture. Predicting the trend of rainfall is a difficult task in meteorology and environmental sciences. Statistical approaches from time series analysis provide an alternative way for predicting the patterns of rainfall. This paper describes an empirical study of modeling and forecasting seasonal rainfall patterns in India. The Box-Jenkins SARIMA Methodology has been adopted for forecasting, the diagnostic checking has shown that the seasonal model 4 (0,0,0) (0,1,1) fitted to the series is appropriate, and forecast are obtained on the basis of the fitted model. Seasonal ARIMA model was a proper method for modeling and predicting the time series of seasonal rainfall patterns.

Keywords

Rainfall, Autocorrelation, Partial autocorrelation, SARIMA, Forecast.

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