Mathematical Modelling of Projection for
Population in Kayah State

HtayHtay Mar; San San Maw; Lin Lin Naing

doi:https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V65I6P514

International Journal of Mathematics Trends and Technology

Research Article | Open Access | Download PDF

Volume 65 | Issue 6 | Year 2019 | Article Id. IJMTT-V65I6P514 | DOI : https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V65I6P514

Mathematical Modelling of Projection for Population in Kayah State

HtayHtay Mar, San San Maw, Lin Lin Naing

Citation :

HtayHtay Mar, San San Maw, Lin Lin Naing, "Mathematical Modelling of Projection for Population in Kayah State," International Journal of Mathematics Trends and Technology (IJMTT), vol. 65, no. 6, pp. 84-91, 2019. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V65I6P514

Abstract

Censuses and projections for population are the most important activities for a country to provide current and future population sizes needed by government, policy makers and planners of a country. Population censuses were taken at least every 10 years period and based on the data and information; population projection has been done yearly to perform the development of the country in various sectors. Kayah State is Myanmar's smallest state by both geographical area and population. In this paper, the population of Kayah State is projected for the first half of 21st century using two mathematical models. The exponential growth model and logistic growth model are used to forecast the population from 2020 to 2050 based on the data and information of the 2014 Myanmar Population and Housing Census and CEIC (Census and Economic Information Center) data. The accuracies of the projected results of two models are compared using results from CEIC data by Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The objective of this paper is to project the population of Kayah State using two mathematical models to the end of the first half of 21st century to support the development of State.

Keywords

Exponential growth model, Logistic growth model, Growth rate, Population projection, Carrying capacity, MAPE.

References

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