Rainfall Forecasts by Mathematical Model using Monthly
Rainfall Data for Ranchi District of Jharkhand in India

Chandan Kumar Pandit; Anamol Kumar Lal; Uma Shanker Singh

doi:https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V69I8P508

International Journal of Mathematics Trends and Technology

Research Article | Open Access | Download PDF

Volume 69 | Issue 8 | Year 2023 | Article Id. IJMTT-V69I8P508 | DOI : https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V69I8P508

Rainfall Forecasts by Mathematical Model using Monthly Rainfall Data for Ranchi District of Jharkhand in India

Chandan Kumar Pandit, Anamol Kumar Lal, Uma Shanker Singh

Received	Revised	Accepted	Published
18 Jun 2023	01 Aug 2023	16 Aug 2023	30 Aug 2023

Citation :

Chandan Kumar Pandit, Anamol Kumar Lal, Uma Shanker Singh, "Rainfall Forecasts by Mathematical Model using Monthly Rainfall Data for Ranchi District of Jharkhand in India," International Journal of Mathematics Trends and Technology (IJMTT), vol. 69, no. 8, pp. 62-67, 2023. Crossref, https://doi.org/10.14445/22315373/IJMTT-V69I8P508

Abstract

Climate change is becoming a threat for the whole world and for the livelihood of humans. Rainfall is one of the major climatic variables which heavily gets impacted by it. Rainfall variability is causing flash floods in some region and droughts in other region. The rainfall prediction has become very important so that the adverse effect of extreme events such as floods and droughts can be minimized. Mathematical model helps in future forecasting of rainfall. Holt-Winter exponential method is used in this paper to forecast rainfall from year 2023 up to 2030. The RMSE and normalized BIC is calculated for the selection of better model between AHW and MHW method. The results suggest that the MHW method yields better forecasts than the AHW method as the RMSE and normalized BIC for MHW method is low. The future forecasts emphasize that the rainfall will gradually increase in future without affecting the seasonal behavior of rainfall. The monsoon rainfall will continue to contribute maximum rainfall to annual rainfall and winter rainfall will contribute the least rainfall to the annual rainfall. The monsoon rainfall of 2030 will contribute 80.8% to the annual rainfall while winter rainfall will contribute the least 2.8% rainfall.

Keywords

Mathematical model, Holt-Winter exponential method, Rainfall forecasts, Climate change, Rainfall trend.

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